MONDAY, July 6, 2026 (HealthDay News) -- For most people, the risk for serious muscle disorders from statins is low, according to a study published online June 25 in The Lancet.
Ting Cai, D.Phil., from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, and colleagues conducted a retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data to derive and validate a model predicting the risk for serious muscle disorders in individuals eligible for statin treatment. The one-, five-, and 10-year risks for serious muscle disorders associated with hospitalization or death were predicted in a Fine-Gray model, adjusting for competing mortality risk, among men aged 50 years or older and women aged 60 years or older.
Overall, 1,785,207 individuals were included in the model derivation cohort and 3,889,504 individuals were included in the external validation cohort. The model included 22 predictors, one of which was statin prescription. The researchers found that in most individuals, the predicted risk for serious muscle disorders was low (99.6 percent of the validation cohort had a 10-year risk of less than 10 percent). Overall good discrimination and calibration were seen in the model; for the 10-year prediction in the external validation, the C-index was 0.782, D-statistic was 2.176, expected to observed ratio was 1.151, and calibration slope was 1.063. A favorable net benefit of the model-assisted clinical decision-making was suggested in a decision curve analysis.
"Our findings suggest that the risk is very low for the vast majority of people who may benefit from treatment. Understanding a person's risk can help put those concerns into perspective, support more informed treatment decisions, and provide reassurance," Ting said in a statement.
